Like most journalists, I try to sit quietly as an impartial observer during press conferences and conference keynotes. You won’t find us among those rising to applaud a product unveiling. However, I couldn’t help myself during a recent SAS Institute keynote in San Francisco, half-shouting “no it’s not!” when the speaker repeatedly insisted the PC is dying.
I am so sick to death of this meme. Say it with me, people. “No, it’s not!” It was particularly galling to hear this ridiculous claim repeated in the context of a discussion of data-driven decision making. We’d been told earlier that the big challenge in harnessing big data was for the geeks to win over the HIPPOs, the “highest-paid person’s opinion” who often ignores the data and favours their gut. Well, let’s look at the data, shall we?
IDC this week reported that tablet shipments will surpass laptop shipments this year, and total PC shipments (laptops and desktops combined) in 2015. More fuel for the “tablets are killing PCs” meme? Not quite.
To make it simple, they even provided a chart:
As you can see, tablet shipments are moving sharply upward. Of course, if lines went up and to the right in perpetuity, we’d be reading about netbooks killing PCs. Remember them? But anyway, look at the forecast for laptop and combined PC shipments. Not rising, but relatively flat and steady. Certainly not dying.
While the form factor isn’t dying, PC sales are undeniably down from their heyday. My theory is that, instead of buying multiple PCs per household, we’re buying one anchor PC, and tablets are replacing the secondary device. Combine it with longer PC refresh cycles and your sales decline is explained, and a smaller PC market lives. This isn’t just supposition on my part though; research from NPD Group, among others, backs the theory up with data.
“Tablets are being purchased as an additional device, not replacing the primary desktop or notebook, so they are bought more frequently,” said NPD’s Darrel Ryce last month. “In particular, the desktop PC repurchase cycle is being extended. With an average of three computers in the home, Canadians are opting to wait longer to buy a new desktop now that they have multiple – and often more convenient – technology to work with.”
That aside, isn’t it time we reconsider the definition of a PC (personal computer) anyways? It’s no longer appropriate to restrict it to just desktop and laptop computers. PCs now come in many form factors.
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Consider the tablet. Many use them with attachable keyboards, and the more expensive models have enough power to do most tasks you’d do on a PC today. A Windows 8 tablet can run most programs you can run on a Windows desktop. How is that not a PC? Heck, even my smartphone has considerably more power than the first PC I bought, and performs many of the same tasks. Yes, there are some things you can’t do with these devices. But a $1500 desktop will also do more than a $500 desktop.
It’s time we stop getting hung up on form factors. With apologies to McLuhan, the medium isn’t the message. And with apologies to Carville, it’s the functionality, stupid. Yes, PCs are evolving. New form factors are emerging, but it’s what we use them for that matters, and that’s much more stable. And sure, one day the desktop and laptop PC as we know it probably will be obsolete. Based on the data though, that won’t be any time soon.
Either way, whatever form it may take, the PC will live on.
Phones and tablets are applicances with computers in them, but I don’t consider them computers (and anyone who would just isn’t a techie). In the 2013 book titled “CUDA Programming”, the author backs up his claim that a modern high-end PC with one-or-more graphics cards (if your mother board supports multiples) can outperform any supercomputer listed 12-years ago at http://www.top500.org . Think about that for a moment. Any university can now easily afford to provide a number of supercomputer-like machine to students without incurring the cost of a 2 MW power supply (powering supercomputers was often more expensive than buying them). What is worse is this: there is a true computing revoution going on but most people are fixated on the minutia of these handheld gadgets. just my 2-cents worth.
Think more about this.
The computer is a stand alone toy that depends on nothing but itself.
Tablets , phones, mp3 players, and other gew gaws are in fact totally useless without a computer to plug them into. (unless your phone is , you know , just a phone and nothing else)
This is probably the defining charactaristic of a PC , and why they’re not going anywhere, no matter how much they shrink.
You really wanna try typing YOUR GREAT NOVEL , or even news articles like this one , on a touch screen tablet with no real keyboard ? yech !
Thank you!!! Finally…someone else who see’s what is really happening. I know! …Right!? It drives me nuts as well to read/hear that. Sure, we all may have ‘peripheral’ equipment, and that is really great for the economy etc., but just go ahead and try getting along without a PC. Go ahead… Jeff and I will wait. ~tapping of the feet~ …yeah, didn’t think so!
Way to go Jeff. Smack ’em once for me too!
I load music on my phone with my pc.Tablet can’t do that.
I type on my PC. tablets have an ugly touch screen interface that is useless for typing anything more than a few words.
I can buy any software from anywhere , even old software I have kicking around from ten years ago , and put it on my pc. Tablet demands you buy from their particular online store and no where else. And now that you are “vender locked” you can bet you pay and pay and pay.
I agree that a tablet , like a phone, will never be more than second fiddle to the pc’s lead . They are so limited that they are in fact useless without a pc. Unless you’re wiling to blow ridiculous amounts of money paying for everything every time you turn around.